CausalMix: Data Mixture as Causal Inference for LLM Training
RegMix solved pretraining mixture optimization with 512 tiny proxy models plus LightGBM regression, but its assumption is static: fit once, get one globally optimal mixture. When the underlying data pool shifts (domains added or removed, distribution drift), the entire regression needs to be rerun. At the SFT stage this problem is worse, because SFT data pools and domain definitions change frequently.
CausalMix ( Data Mixture as Causal Inference for Language Model Training , 2026/07) recasts mixture optimization as a causal inference problem. The difference: RegMix learns a global mapping $T \to Y$ (mixture to performance), while CausalMix learns a conditional causal effect $\theta_0(X)$ (the marginal return of each domain under the current data state $X$). By orthogonalizing confounding effects of the data state via Double Machine Learning, the causal model does not need new proxy experiments when the data pool changes.
After fitting the causal model on 512 Qwen2.5-0.5B runs over tulu-3-sft-mixture, extrapolating to 800K samples for a 7B model, CausalMix-S reaches AvgDev 62.28 (RegMix 60.14, DMO 60.35) and CausalMix-A reaches AvgUns 49.09 (RegMix 48.12, DMO 48.98). On transfer to a completely different Qwen3-4B + AM-Thinking long-CoT dataset, CausalMix averages 66.66, versus RegMix 61.40 and DMO 63.47.