Thoughts on Training Data Depletion and Quality Degradation
There used to be a popular claim: human-generated data on the internet would be exhausted within a few years, and LLM training data was running out. Epoch AI predicted in 2022 that high-quality text data might be depleted around 2026. The discussion was intense at the time, but it seems to come up less often now.
The internet is indeed flooded with AI-generated content. Search for almost anything and the first few results likely include AI-written text. According to earlier fears, this AI-generated text would be crawled back as training data, models eating their own output, getting worse with each iteration — the so-called model collapse. A Nature paper rigorously demonstrated this: recursively training on a model’s own output causes tail distributions to gradually vanish, making outputs increasingly homogeneous.